March 6, 2020

Episode 244: Protecting You and Your Dog from COVID-19 (Coronavirus)

In this episode (48:08)

In this episode, Esteban and Sarah discuss what you should know about the Coronavirus outbreak in order to protect yourself and your dogs.

You Will Learn

  • How to find the most accurate, up-to-date information about the Coronavirus
  • Why this outbreak is different from past Coronavirus outbreaks
  • Which people are at the highest risk for dying
  • Which preventative measures you should take
  • Why you should protect your dog from getting the virus
  • How the Coronavirus compares to influenza (the flu)

Mentioned/Related

Today. We're going to be talking about the Corona virus and just a couple of notes right off the bat. Why are we doing this podcast? Well, we are agility people, but in addition to that,

but in addition to that, Esteban is a physician. And we know that in a situation like this, where there's so much information out there, it can be really overwhelming to a nonmedical professional. It can be overwhelming to a medical professional. And so we wanted to provide what clarity we could to our listeners and kind of condense the information to what you really need to know about what's going on right now in the United States and all over the world.

Esteban is a physician. And we know that in a situation like this, where there's so much information out there, it can be really overwhelming to a nonmedical professional. It can be overwhelming to a medical professional. And so we wanted to provide what clarity we could to our listeners and kind of condense the information to what you really need to know about what's going on right now in the United States and all over the world.

Um, we have, we're not going to have ads on this particular podcast. We just want to get right into the information. And of course this is changing every day. So, uh, unfortunately this podcast could be out of date fairly quickly. Um, but as of today, March 6th, this is what we know and what we think about the Corona virus.

We have, we're not going to have ads on this particular podcast. We just want to get right into the information. And of course, this is changing every day. So unfortunately this podcast could be out of date fairly quickly, but as of today, March 6th, this is what we know and what we think about the Corona virus. I think the other very relevant point to us as dog agility people is that there was a case in Hong Kong where someone got the virus and their dog got the virus and health officials believe that it was transmitted from the person to the dog.

Maybe the other very relevant point to us as doggy Julie people is that there was a case in Hong Kong where someone got the virus and their dog got the virus and health officials believe that it was transmitted from the person to the dog. We're definitely going to talk more about that in just a minute or two, but before we get to all of that, we're going to restart right away with the disclaimer that this podcast is for informational purposes.

We're definitely going to talk more about that in just a minute or two, but before we get to all of that, we're going to restart right away with the disclaimer that this podcast is for informational purposes. Only it's not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. You need to get that from your physician. So always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified healthcare provider with any questions you have regarding a medical condition.

Only it's not intended as a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis, or treatment. You need to get that from your physician. So always seek the advice of your physician or other qualified healthcare provider with any questions you have regarding a medical condition. And, uh, by listening to this podcast, you acknowledge, uh, that statement. One of the big takeaway points that I want everyone to get from this podcast is where to get your information about the Corona virus and a great example of this is being done by Google.

And by listening to this podcast, you acknowledge that statement. One of the big takeaway points that I want everyone to get from this podcast is where to get your information about the Corona virus and a great example of this is being done by Google. So when you type in Corona virus into your Google search engine, you're going to get different results than you would have.

So when you type in Corona virus into your Google search engine, you're going to get different results than you would have. Say, a month ago, Google has brought to the very top of their search results information from the world health organization and the CDC. So if you go into your browser right now, you type it in at the very top, you're going to get an SOS alert.

Say, a month ago, Google has brought to the very top of their search results information from the world health organization and the CDC. So if you go into your browser right now, you type it in at the very top, you're going to get an SOS alert. This is COVID-19. And then underneath that, you're going to get maybe three top stories each with a thumbnail photo.

This is COVID-19. And then underneath that, you're going to get maybe three top stories each with a thumbnail photo. And then below that, you're going to get advisory information from, um, the world health organization, the who, the CDC, which is the centers for disease control and prevention here in the United States. And then for us, at least,

And then below that, you're going to get advisory information from the world health organization, the who, the CDC, which is the centers for disease control and prevention here in the United States. And then for us, at least, because we live in Texas, you're going to get information from the Texas department of health. And so Google is doing this to not only bring the most accurate up to date information to the very top,

because we live in Texas, you're going to get information from the, uh, Texas department of health. And so Google is doing this to not only bring the most accurate up to date information to the very top, but to really push down a lot of the fake false information that is really going around right now. So if you're getting information from Twitter,

but to really push down a lot of the fake false information that is really going around right now. So if you're getting information from Twitter, if you're getting it from social media, from Facebook posts, I think you should consider that information suspect, even if it's sites, the CDC or world health organization, which a genuine legit news outlets like CNN, the guardian New York times,

if you're getting it from social media, from Facebook posts, I think you should consider that information suspect, even if it's sites, the CDC or world health organization, which a genuine legit news outlets like CNN, the guardian New York times, they should all be citing those organizations as well. But it's very important to separate fact from opinion, okay. And we needed to be God,

they should all be citing those organizations as well. But it's very important to separate fact from opinion, okay. And we needed to be guided, we need to be guided by the science here. And so I wanted to point that out to you for your Google searches. And the other thing to consider is that every country at, at the national level,

we need to be guided by the science here. And so I wanted to point that out to you for your Google searches. And the other thing to consider is that every country, um, at, at the national level, the state level, the local level, you're going to have political leadership and they are also out there. They're making statements, they're making comments,

the state level, the local level, you're going to have political leadership and they are also out there. They're making statements, they're making comments, they're sharing information that they are getting. I think we should also consider that information suspect. Again, I want to go directly to the source, the who the CDC, because you know, the politicians may not always be saying the correct or most accurate things.

they're sharing information that they are getting. I think we should also consider that information suspect. Again, I want to go directly to the source, the who the CDC, because, um, uh, you know, the politicians may not always be saying the correct or most accurate things. And so we want to get that information from the experts. One cool site that Google will also show you after those hits is something called the world,

And so we want to get that information from the experts. One cool site that Google will also show you after those hits is something called the WorldOMeters, and it's worldometers.info. And we're going to put a link to that in the show notes page, but that shows you kind of real time statistics for all different kinds of things. And they're doing one on the coronavirus right now.

Oh, meters, and it's worldwide meters.info. And we're going to put a link to that in the show notes page, but that shows you, um, kind of real time statistics for all different kinds of things. And they're doing one on the coronavirus right now. And so you can see that it's got 101,000 cases that's as of today, 3,400 deaths with 56,000 recoveries.

And so you can see that it's got 101,000 cases that's as of today, 3,400 deaths with 56,000 recoveries. And something very cool that they've done is taking the 101,000 people the cases and divided them into active and closed. And so when you look at the closed cases, 59,569 closed cases, these are cases which had a definite outcome. 94% of them resulted in recovery,

And something very cool that they've done is taking the 101,000 people the cases and divided them into active and closed. And so when you look at the closed cases, 59,569 closed cases, these are cases which had a definite outcome. 94% of them resulted in recovery, right? Patient got to leave the hospital go home. They were otherwise, okay. 3,461 people 6% died.

right? Patient got to leave the hospital go home. They were otherwise, okay. 3,461 people 6% died. Right? But the key here is even though this is a very serious situation, when we look at the closed cases, 94% of people are recovering, right? So that's the, that's the majority of people, the vast majority of people, when we look over at the active cases side,

Right? But the key here is even though this is a very serious situation, when we look at the closed cases, 94% of people are recovering, right? So that's the, that's the majority of people, the vast majority of people, when we look over at the active cases side, which currently is numbered, about 42085% are presenting with some kind of mild con condition,

which currently is numbered, about 42085% are presenting with some kind of mild con condition and about 6,000 or 15% serious or critical condition. So again, the majority of people are having more mild, manageable symptoms that are less serious. So I think that's important for everybody to keep in mind, as far as how panicked we should be. Now, the CDC website,

uh, and about 6,000 or 15% serious or critical condition. So again, the majority of people are having, um, more, um, mild, manageable symptoms that are less serious. So I think that's important for everybody to keep in mind, as far as, um, how panicked we should be now, the CDC website, even for people who are not in the United States,

even for people who are not in the United States, but especially for people here, living in the U S they have an FAQ, a frequently asked questions and answers section, and they've done a really good job in there of addressing the concerns that people have. They're constantly updating it. And that's where I think everybody needs to go to get their information, especially for those of you who are in leadership positions at your employment,

but especially for people here, living in the U S they have an FAQ, a frequently asked questions and answers section, and they've done a really good job in there of, uh, addressing the concerns that people have. They're constantly updating it. And that's where I think everybody needs to go to get their information, especially for those of you who are in leadership positions at your employment,

your schools, your, uh, organizations, that's where you should be going to get your guidance. So there's a couple of things that I want to give you guys. And one is a brief talk about what the Corona virus is because there's a lot of terminology. There's a lot of words and phrases being used in the media right now. And it can be a little bit confusing.

your schools, your organizations, that's where you should be going to get your guidance. So there's a couple of things that I want to give you guys. And one is a brief talk about what the Corona virus is because there's a lot of terminology. There's a lot of words and phrases being used in the media right now. And it can be a little bit confusing.

So Corona viruses, there's, there's really more than one. So there are several different types of Corona virus. And, um, as a group they're called Corona viruses. And so there's an outbreak right now of a new Corona virus. So it's often called a novel Corona virus. In fact, the world health organization has named it the 2019 dash and C O V little N big C little O.

So Corona viruses, there's, there's really more than one. So there are several different types of Corona virus. And as a group, they're called Corona viruses. And so there's an outbreak right now of a new Corona virus. So it's often called a novel Corona virus. In fact, the world health organization has named it the 2019 dash and C O V little N big C little O.

So N is for novel, C O is for Cremona and big V virus. So you're gonna see this a lot in a, you know, an article that you may read in the paper you see on the internet, 2019 dash N C O V, but you're also gonna see this thing called SARS S a R S all caps dash C O big V dash two.

So N is for novel, C O is for Cremona and big V virus. So you're gonna see this a lot in a, you know, an article that you may read in the paper you see on the internet, 2019 dash N C O V, but you're also gonna see this thing called SARS S a R S all caps dash C O big V dash two.

Right? So SARS C O V two. And that is the exact same virus with a different name. It has a different name because there's an organization out there. I believe it's called the international committee and taxonomy of viruses. The only reason that organization exists is to name viruses and that's what they chose to name it. So you're going to see that also,

Right? So SARS C O V two. And that is the exact same virus with a different name. It has a different name because there's an organization out there. I believe it's called the international committee and taxonomy of viruses. The only reason that organization exists is to name viruses and that's what they chose to name it. So you're going to see that also,

and you're going to wonder, what is this, the same virus as the other virus? How many viruses are there? Uh, right now it's the one virus that we're talking about, and it just has two different names. Two different organizations and newspapers will use one or the other, depending on what country you're reading the paper from. Now, you're also going to see this thing called COVID dash 2019,

and you're going to wonder, what is this, the same virus as the other virus? How many viruses are there right now? It's the one virus that we're talking about, and it just has two different names. Two different organizations and newspapers will use one or the other, depending on what country you're reading the paper from. Now, you're also going to see this thing called COVID dash 2019,

C O V I D all caps dash 2019, or C O V I D dash 19. Okay. It's the same thing. And that refers to the disease caused by the virus, the disease, not the virus. So the best example that I can give you is HIV. So HIV is human immunodeficiency virus. Uh, most people are familiar with that.

C O V I D all caps dash 2019, or C O V I D dash 19. Okay. It's the same thing. And that refers to the disease caused by the virus, the disease, not the virus. So the best example that I can give you is HIV. So HIV is human immunodeficiency virus. Most people are familiar with that. HIV,

HIV, the virus causes the disease AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. So that's AIDS. So AIDS is the disease. HIV is the virus that causes AIDS. So that's the situation here, right? We have a Corona virus it's called 2019 NCO V and it causes the disease. COVID 19, or COVID 2019. Right? I am seeing a lot of the shorthand now COVID-19 so hopefully that clears it up for you.

the virus causes the disease AIDS acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. So that's aide. So AIDS is the disease. HIV is the virus that causes AIDS. So that's the situation here, right? We have a Corona virus it's called 2019 NCO V and it causes the disease. COVID 19 or COVID 2019. Right? I am seeing a lot of the shorthand now COVID-19 so hopefully that clears it up for you.

You're going to see all four of those phrases in media, but now, you know what that means, and you can be a little bit less confused. So now I've got data that we're going to talk about. This is already maybe a week old, but I think it's still holding true. Even as the new cases come in. In fact, the new cases seem to be confirming this trend that we saw,

You're going to see all four of those phrases in media, but now you know what that means, and you can be a little bit less confused. So now I've got data that we're going to talk about. This is already maybe a week old, but I think it's still holding true. Even as the new cases come in. In fact, the new cases seem to be confirming this trend that we saw relatively early on last week.

um, relatively early on last week. And what we find here is that the death rate, when we look at it, when we break it down by different categories, let's start with age, right? So in the, um, zero to nine years old, it's like basically zero, you get a little bit 10 to 19, 20 to 29,

30 to 39, but you don't get a jump until 40 to 49. And then we get a tripling of 50 to 59, and then we get another tripling. It's 60 to 69 years old and a doubling at 70 to 79 and another doubling an 80 plus. So what this means is when we look at, um, age, we see that the Corona virus is killing older people,

right? The older you are, the worse your outcome is when you have this virus, okay, statistically speaking, the younger you are the better off that you're going to be. And this is very different from other situations that we've had, which, uh, other viruses, you know, some of them, you know, kill indiscriminately. It doesn't matter how old you are,

it's going to get you. And when we look at something like the 1918 pandemic flu, that wiped out a large part of the world population at that time, and, uh, it's being referred to a lot with respect to the coronavirus. We had what we call a w shaped, um, distribution of deaths, meaning we got the old people, they were dying.

We got the very young, they were dying. And in the middle, there was a weird spike of middle aged people who were also dying. But here it's not like that at all. This is really disproportionately affecting older people, right? And that's really relevant for our agility population here in the United States in particular because our competitors tend to be on the older side of 40 to 49.

And, um, I think the average age for the AKC competitor, I want to say is in the fifties, I don't know the exact number, but I think it's somewhere in that neighborhood. And so this is something that's very relevant to, uh, agility competitors. Okay. The next thing we want to look at is health condition. And so the other,

um, statistic that's coming out for all the people who so far have died from coronavirus is that they have health problems. Um, there have been people who did not have any health problems that have died, but if you have cardiovascular disease, which is the worst to have diabetes, which is the next worst to have respiratory disease like, or even high blood pressure hypertension,

uh, those are all bad, right? People with those things, if you're getting Corona virus are dying at much higher rates than people who have none of those things. And so if you are someone who is older, if you are someone who has one of these, uh, general medical, you know, health conditions, uh, chronic health conditions,

this is very worrisome. Uh, the third category we're going to talk a little bit about is male to female. And it's almost two to one like 60, 40 something in that neighborhood men, more so than women dying from this. We don't know if it's something protective, um, that women have or something bad that men have. I think, uh,

you know, it's going to be quite some time before we can really get at some of the causes of some of the numbers that we're seeing in the different, uh, categories here. Okay. So this is the most relevant part here for doggy jelly people. We've been getting the question, and this is what we really want to know. Can dogs get or transmit Corona virus to people.

And the thing that prompted this was that there was a case in Hong Kong where someone got coronavirus and somehow that patient's dog ended up with the department of agriculture fisheries and conservation. This is in Hong Kong. And so for reasons that have not been explained so far as I know they tested the dog, the dog was not showing any signs of illness. I don't know if it was scientific curiosity that caused them to do it,

but they swapped the dog. And so the dog was handed over to this, uh, department and preliminary tests from the dog's oral nasal and rectal samples tested as quote unquote, weak, positive. But it's important to note that the dog does not have any relevant, uh, symptoms. And so I pulled up a recent article, uh, to get an update because this actually happened,

I think last week, where news about the, uh, the dog came out. And so they are saying now, and this is from someone who is working at the world health organization, that they don't believe that this is a major driver of transmission, uh, which of course leaves open the possibility that it could be a minor driver or some kind of driver of transmission.

But she basically says that it's only one example. And so it deserves much more study, certainly, but it's not a conclusive. And so let's see this all happened. The initial announcement came out February 28th. So today is March 6th. So this is just like a week ago. And at first, what they thought was, okay, you know, we did this test,

maybe it was environmental contamination. You know, the dog is sniffing things. It's licking things, the viruses on the surface of objects in the house, and maybe the dog doesn't actually have it. But what they did was they repeated the test again. Uh, several days later after the dog had been quarantine and that test was also positive. Uh, there is another dye that they have in quarantine,

but, uh, whose owner also had the disease, but that test was negative. And so Chinese officials at this point are saying, okay, look, we don't have any current evidence that says dogs can spread it to other dogs or to people is just like a onetime human to dog. What we call dead end, uh, transmission, right? Maybe the virus is not replicating at really high levels at high enough levels to go to someone else or to be transmitted to someone else.

Um, who knows, maybe there's a deficiency with the test. They're not sure. And so, uh, researchers are going to take a look at the dog's specific virus, because one thing they can do is sequence all the viruses and they can kind of figure out, um, how viruses are related and which one came first and, and very cool things like that.

And so what they don't know is what part animals may play in transmission. So people admit that that's unknown. Um, but they also note, and this is coming from Michael Ryan, who's the executive director of the world health organization, health emergencies program. And at a March 5th news conference says, you know, this happens with animals, quote, not an unusual or unprecedented finding.

It happens regularly with emerging diseases and quote. And so for a few pet owners out there and all vets out there, they know that Corona viruses are found in animals in particular, in pets and dogs. In fact, for dogs, I think there's even a, a Corona virus that really affects the GI tract, the intestinal tract. And so I think a vaccine had been developed for it,

but no one uses it, uh, because the, uh, infection is very mild, that happens in young, dies. The body takes care of it. It clears up on its own. And as a reminder from the beginning of this podcast, you're now talking generally Corona viruses, the group, not this specific one there, I apologize, right?

There is a Corona virus that we have been aware of for a very long time. That affects dogs. It is not this one other than this one case that we're still investigating. Some form of the Corona virus has been around for thousands of years, right? Gene sequencing, they've determined a common ancestor existed, uh, as, as far back as 8,000 years.

Right? So it's been, it's been around in the human population for a long, long time. And it also hangs out in animals. We call that a reservoir. Um, and every once in a while it mutates, it changes and then it can jump that's when it gets dangerous. When it mutates, it's hanging out in animals, jumps to a person.

Uh, we'll talk about that in a little bit. Um, let me get you the current, uh, statement from the CDC. So if you go to the frequently asked questions for Corona virus on the cdc.gov website, it says there is no reason to think that any animals, including pets in the United States might be a source of infection with this new Corona virus to date,

CDC has not received any reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19. Uh, and here they use the term COVID-19, which I've already explained to you is the disease, not the virus. And this time, there is no evidence that companion animals, including pets can spread COVID-19. And so that's the official statement from the CDC. That's what it is right now.

But you know, the concern or question for me is always, are we actively testing pets? And the answer here in the United States is no, we're not even really testing people on the scale that they're testing in countries where the outbreak has really taken hold Italy, South Korea, Japan, and obviously China. And so if you're not testing animals, you're not going to find it in animals.

And so that's why I think this statement here, they keep using the phrase at this time, at this time. And so we kind of need to see what happens and how this thing evolves, especially here in the United States. Okay. The next thing that we want to, uh, talk about is what would happen if you did get the virus? So most likely what's going to happen is somebody's listening to this podcast.

At some point in the next several months is going to get the virus, or you're going to know someone who's going to get the virus. And th they have pets, right? Maybe they don't do agility, but it's a dog person. They have dogs, they have pets. So what the CDC is recommending right now is that you stop petting snuggling,

kissing, or licking or sharing food with your dogs, right? This is if you have the virus. So that's important to keep in mind because we don't want all our dogs and pets getting the virus. Let's say this thing, uh, really takes hold here in the United States. And a lot of people get it. A lot of those people have dogs.

We don't want the virus now getting to dogs, because it could turn into a situation where dogs spread to other dies. That's not the situation now to our knowledge. And we don't know what is happening right now, but what happens in two years, five years, 10 years, 20 years when the virus has been existing in the dog population, this specific virus,

the new brand, a virus, Corona virus, not the old different brands of coronavirus. And then it mutates and it comes back to people and then it becomes a deadlier, right? That's a really bad thing. We want to protect our pet population, not just now, because right now we're saying, okay, there, even if they got it,

they're not showing any signs. I completely understand that point. However, I'm thinking forward, I'm thinking for dogs 10 years from now, 20 years from now, and we want to have the ability to, um, have our dogs because when we had outbreaks in the past, that have originated from animals and we didn't always know what animals they were coming from.

But for example, the bird flu, I think, was in 1997, they were slaughtering chickens at that time, right. They thought, okay, this is coming from the chickens were going to kill all these chickens. You can see that we want to be very careful and protect dogs as much as we can. And so there's no reason to give them the virus.

So just take the precautions, take a, you know, it's going to be a few weeks before your body clears the virus. And so just don't do it petting snuggling, kissing licking. They recommend, you know, washing your hands every time you interact with the dog wearing a mask. And again, this is if you actually have the virus. So hopefully right now,

if you're listening to this, like when this podcast is released, none of you have it, right? No one has the virus here in the United States, but we do have many listeners around the world. And some of you may, may have the virus or know someone who has the virus and also has an animal. So that's, what's going on.

That's the information that we have, uh, right now, uh, one of the things that we've been talking about a lot is how bad is this going to get? And there's a, there's a big divergence of opinions here. And at first I was like, you know, um, I don't know how bad this is going to get the media maybe is,

uh, overhyping this a little bit, but as information continued to come out of China, uh, and then especially once it hit, uh, South Korea and Japan, I think, um, people are, and I guess by people, I mean, healthcare professionals like myself, you're, you're more run of the mill non-public health, uh, professionals, right?

Your, your physicians and so forth, uh, are taking it more seriously. We're making preparations in countries all around the world where it is not yet taken hold in order to prevent what has happened in Italy, in Iran, in South Korea, in Japan, in China, South Korea, and Japan in particular, they have taken very serious steps to, uh,

slow down the, uh, spread of the virus. They've canceled big events, marathons, athletic, sporting events. They've banned, uh, large groups of people from gathering. They've closed public schools, uh, for extended periods of time in Japan. There's no school for the entire country for, uh, children. And so they're using very, uh,

big time restrictive, uh, methods. And so a lot of what we know about Corona viruses come from previous outbreaks. So the one I think that most people are familiar with, or some people are going to be familiar with is SARS, right? Severe acute respiratory syndrome. SARS outbreak was in 2003. Um, the animal that, that, that it was determined that that ultimately came from was bats like cave dwelling bats,

the one outbreak that people don't know very much about. I didn't, I, you know, I didn't know very much about it either came most recently in 2012, middle East respiratory syndrome, Merz, and that animal, the animal, the culprit there was, uh, camels. And so both of these Corona virus outbreaks were very deadly. Like the,

the death rate, the mortality rate was much higher than it is for this current brand of the coronavirus that we still don't know exactly what the mortality rate here is looking like somewhere between, um, two and 3%. Uh, some recently quoted numbers include 2.5%, 3.4%, I think was given by, uh, recently given by, uh, who, um,

official that number may rise or may, may fall. Uh, we're not sure it's a little bit early, but so far right now, we're looking in the two to 3% range. So how does this new coronavirus compare with these other older outbreaks? Right. That's really scared a lot of people. And we had a lot of strong reactions to those and really worked to contain them.

And, uh, containment was a successful, right? Ultimately successful. Otherwise everyone would have heard of those things. And so let's take a look just at cases, not deaths. So we're looking at cases Merz about 2,500 SARS, about 8,000 Corona virus is over a hundred thousand, right? So it's way, way bigger in scope. And then when we look at deaths,

the absolute number of the Corona virus is much higher. It's over 3000 SARS was almost 800 murders was around 800, but the rate of death was much higher for sarcoma. So those were deadlier versions of the virus. This is less deadly, and that is good news and bad news. The good news literally creates the bad news. So it's good news.

We talked earlier in this podcast about how, like 94% of people are getting better of the closed cases. And that's great. That's much better than it, than it is to get SARS or MERS. If you got SARS or MERS, you were in trouble, but with the Corona virus, 94% of people are getting better. But because that is happening,

um, we are finding that they're asymptomatic people, meaning they have no symptoms. They're not coughing. They don't have fever or anything like that, but they're testing positive for the virus. Uh, and we know that they exist because what happens is someone gets sick. We test them, they have the virus. Then we test all their family members and then their family members never get sick.

They never develop the disease, but we know they're carrying the virus from the test. And so we know that there are healthy people walking around with the virus, giving it to other people and who are the people that are going to get it and get sick and die at much higher rates. It's going to be the elderly. It's going to be people with chronic illnesses.

And so, um, that's the bad news of this thing, not being as deadly, as sorry, as immerse on one hand. Good. That it's less deadly, much less deadly on the other hand, bad, because it's going to let it spread in a different pattern than both of those previous outbreaks. And so that's a really key point for everyone to understand.

So comparing it to MERS and SARS is perhaps a little bit less helpful. And so what a lot of healthcare professionals, public health officials are looking at is the influence of pandemic of 1918, which extended into 1919. That's right around world war one time actually killed more people than died in the war. And at that time, an estimated one third of the world's population,

one third of everyone living on the earth got infected and was sick. And the disease was very bad. It was very severe case. Fatality rates were a little more than a 2.5%. What is the case fatality rate for influenza in general? Not that specific one, that specific one 1918, we said it's 2.5%. What about influencer? What about influencer today?

The flu today, today it's about 0.1%. So the fatality rate for that pandemic in 1918 was 25 times greater. Then what it is for the flu, the versions of the flu that we have today. All right. Uh, you know, there's a wide variety of reasons for that, but that was a very bad strain of flu and it did an incredible amount of damage.

And so when we talk about, um, statistics, one thing that happened that I noticed right away in the medical community was that we had people like myself. When we first heard about this coronavirus outbreak, we said, you know what, not as big a deal, because we know that there are thousands, tens of thousands of people in the United States this year alone that are going to die from the regular flu.

Why aren't we talking about that only a couple thousand people have died and they all live in China. What does that have to do with the 30,000 over here? Why are we giving so much media attention to this when we should be giving media attention to the flu? Okay. And I think that was my position, I think as recently as 10 days ago.

Right. And now, uh, my position is very, very different because as I learned more and I, uh, kind of studied a little bit what was going on, and I tried to see it through the eyes of an epidemiologist, you know, a public health person, the potential for spread and illness is way beyond anything that the flu today is doing.

So to understand, let's say, let's say that, um, the flu kills 0.1% of people, and we're losing 30,000 people in the United States this year. And let's say that this new Corona virus is 2%, not even 2.5, not 3.4. And the other numbers, we're going to pick a relatively known low number that we know is below the actual rate of death.

At this time, I'm just going to do it to make the math easy. Let's call it 2%. So that's 20 times the amount of people who die by flu. So if we know that 30,000 people are dying in the U S 20 times 30,000 is going to be 600,000, Okay. That's getting close to a million people there that are going to die from this.

Okay. You're saying if this spreads like the flips, this spreads to everybody like the flu does in the same way, which is what it looks like. It's going to do that. And not only that, but we're comparing it to flu where we actually have a vaccine that's right. Potential is that this could spread well beyond what the flu spreads, right.

If it is not controlled, right. So this is kind of the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario is bad, right? So the worst case scenario is bad. Exactly. I mean, worse than the flu way, worse than the flu. Exactly. Right. So I think that healthcare professionals Are being maybe a little too, um, cavalier,

I think about it saying, Hey, well, why aren't we paying attention to the flu? Well, because, because as far as we know the flu, unless we get this, a new mutation of the flu is not going to kill a million people in the United States this year. But this virus has the potential to do that. If we don't slow it spread.

And remember its spread has been dramatically, dramatically halted because there was absolute quarantine in China and Japan and South Korea, people were, they didn't go to work. They didn't go to school. They shut everything down. They had people in hazmat suits, hosing down places of worship and schools. And anywhere that infected people had been food is being delivered to houses in China.

You could only go out once a week. Then they curtailed that once they figured out the incubation period of the virus was about two weeks. So that's why all your quarantine, uh, periods of time here in the United States are two weeks. And so that's really important to understand if, you know, as, as a doctor, if we're going to run around saying,

well, the flu is so much worse. You know, it's not that bad understand that we don't take these precautions for the flu. We don't cancel the Boston marathon, but they canceled the Tokyo marathon. Actually, they ran it. But instead of 35,000 people showing up, they just, they only let the elite 300 show up and nobody went to watch it.

They're playing a basketball games and baseball games, but with no spectators. So they can still have their, their championships in their statistics and televised. Right. So it's really having a big impact over there that we have not yet done here in the United States are needed to do. And there's a couple of other, uh, things that I wanted to talk about.

One is the question of surfaces, right? So people want to know like, should I be wiping things down? Yes. You see people out there and hazmat suits, disinfecting things. And what the CDC is recommending right now is you want to clean frequently touched surfaces and objects every day, tables, countertops, light switches, door knobs, cabinet handles,

and you can use just a regular household detergent and water. If the surfaces are dirty, you know, they have like actual non virus stuff on them. You need to clean that with detergent and water, and then you want to disinfect. Now I saw on CNN, they had a list of all these things that you can use to disinfect. And I compared it with the EPA,

which is the environmental protection agency approved emerging viral pathogen list. That's maintained by the American chemistry council center for biocide chemistries. You can get it. Um, we will put a link to it in the show notes page, but basically it has a list of products. And, uh, to give you a sense of what kind of products are on there,

uh, your Purell is on there, right? Multi-surface disinfectant your food processing, surface sanitizer, uh, your Clorox healthcare bleach germicidal cleaner spray, your cleaner disinfectants. So for those of you who are in charge again of facilities who need to disinfect large areas, because there was a suspected case at your work or your job, like you can go to this website,

print out the PDF file and order those supplies or go and find those supplies. And so those kinds of lists are available to you. Um, but it's important to know that the main mode of transmission is not through these, uh, these fomites, these other things like tables and doorknobs and things like that. You can certainly get it that way. What it seems to be is that it's close contact,

close contact is doing it. How do we define close contact? So the CDC says six feet or less. So if I'm really close to a person and we want to think about, well, where are you going to be that close to a person, airplanes, buses, sporting events, movie theaters. Those are all situations where you're really close to other people,

right? And so it's less about touching things because while they think you can certainly get it that way, they don't think that that is the most efficient way for the virus to spread. Most of the viral spread is happening, uh, droplet transmission from like mouth to mouth, right? Like you're kissing someone or someone's sneezing on you, coughing on you.

Um, and in those cases, we'll talk about mass. I guess we should talk about mass. Now. They're not gonna, it's not gonna protect you. Their mucosal surfaces. We call them mucosal, surfaces, not just your mouth and your nose, but also your eyes, right? And your mask is not covering your eyes either. It's on your face,

it's on your clothes. In fact, if I am trapped in a small enclosed space with someone who has the virus, I don't want the mass for myself, I'm going to give the mass to the guy with the virus, right. So they can cough into that mask. But even viruses are so small water droplets can be so small that, um,

you need very specific mass. So it's the end 95. It's a very specific, uh, mass that's tested that only has a certain size hole in it. Uh, so most things cannot pass through it. So your common surgical mass, or the things that you commonly see, um, if you're watching Grey's anatomy, that kind of mask. Yeah.

That's not good enough. That's not good enough. And so a lot of the mass people aren't using aren't helping any way. Um, but that's part of the reason why the CDC is not recommending that everybody go around with mass, what are they recommending? They are recommending hand-washing. And so, yeah. Ah, hand-washing Sarah, can you tell us what you have learned about hand-washing?

Well, I, I made this point when we were talking to, um, RVI peers, because I think that as a nonmedical person, it is easy to feel like, um, that this is just lip service that we're being given, that people are telling us to wash our hands, because it's something we can do, but it's, you know,

that can't be the main thing. There has to be some medical secret that the doctors know that they're not telling us about how we can not get sick. But, um, and I know that I kind of have had that thought before, but after years and years and years being married to a doctor being, uh, in that community, having lots and lots of our friends be doctors,

because we met them during medical school. Um, this is real. This is the doctors are serious. It is the number one thing that you can do to keep yourself from getting sick. And, uh, every doctor I know is super, super serious about it. So I just kinda wanted to give that perspective as a nonmedical person, where you could be a little bit skeptical.

And you could think that there's, you know, that, um, that there's other things that you, that would be better that they're keeping to themselves. And it's just not true quiz time. Sarah, how long should you wash your hands? 20 seconds. Hot or cold water. Doesn't matter. I think it doesn't matter. Yeah. It doesn't matter.

And then, uh, are you doing just water or, Oh, water and soap. Soap and water. Okay. And if you don't have access to soap and water, what should you be using? Uh, something like pure L some sort of alcohol based solution, at least 60%, At least 60% alcohol, almost all of them are. So,

you know, if you pick one up, you can, you can look in the back, but That wasn't really, it's going to be six years. So that was another point that I had wanted to make too, because, um, you can not find hand sanitizer, you know, at this point it is so hard to find at the store because everybody is buying it,

but you can find soap, you know, no problem. And so I think people need to understand, like hand sanitizer is not somehow better than soap. It's more convenient. You can keep it in your purse. You can use it in places. You don't have water. Yes. That is true. But in terms of keeping yourself safe, if you have access to water and soap,

you're okay. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. Um, a couple of other points that we want to make with, uh, precautions, right? Uh, aside from the hand-washing that we just talked about, don't touch your mouth, your nose, but also your eyes. Eyes is the one that people often miss a rubbing of the eyes, especially with your fingers.

You guys do it unconsciously. Everybody does it several times a day. Everybody. Now I'm very aware of touching my eyes. Uh, and when you wear a mask, you want to wear it if you're sick, but if you're sick, stay home, cover your cops. And sneezes obviously avoid being near coughing or obviously sick people, but understand that perfectly well.

People are walking around with a virus it's in the community and you want to clean your surfaces. We already talked about where to find a list of cleaners that you can use. Uh, I do want to back up to one other point as well. When we look at, uh, the issue of when, when are we going to call this a pandemic?

There are two strategies here, and one is called containment. The other is called mitigation. And right now here in the United States, we're in containment, everywhere else. They're doing containment. And mitigation containment means someone gets sick here in the United States, right? A case pops up, we send a team, they go and they ask that person a lot of questions.

Where have you been, have you been out of the country? Were you in China? Where you in do you have a relative who was there? Where have you been since you, since you were exposed, like who else could have been exposed? And they kind of draw out a map or a tree of all the relationships that you've had over the past,

you know, week or two. And so they're going to trace the path of infection and they're going to quarantine people and say, Hey, you need to stay home or, Hey, you need to be in the hospital or you're already in the hospital. So it's finding out who could have been affected and then quarantining all those people. But only those people,

mitigation is very different. Mitigation is what they've done over there in Asia. It's shut it all down. No gatherings. We cancel school. We have everybody stay home. And so we now have multiple deaths in many cases in Washington, in California. And so they are starting to use some mitigation. They had a suspected case popup in high school. They closed that high school down for Thursday and Friday.

They had another one pop up in an elementary school. They closed that school. Um, uh, people are telling us that at any given time, a large percent of students are out sick. Not because they may have the virus, but that there is concern. And when people have, uh, you know, kids get sick, kids, kids took all the time.

And usually we send them to school, right? Unless they have a fever. A lot, most kids are going to go to school. We know that as parents, but now I think parents are being more proactive and keeping those kids at home. And so I think those are all forms of mitigation. And so once this thing breaks containment, once it's no longer good enough to just fall around a couple people and tell a couple of people to stay home.

That's when you get into these big things that you're going to see in the news where thing events are canceled and all that kind of stuff. So those are that's mitigation. So just understanding the difference between those two things. Um, but here in the United States, if you talk to public health officials, they do expect it to break containment. Uh, you may be hearing very different things from politicians.

Ultimately, I hope the politicians are right, right. It would be great if this thing were contained, if this thing just went away like SARS and MERS affected only, you know, the people who have already been affected and did not affect millions and millions of people, but it just doesn't look like the viruses on that trajectory. It doesn't look like that's,

what's going to happen. And so everybody needs to be, um, cautious. And I think everybody needs to be very proactive and everybody needs to cut out things like unnecessary travel now to just to wrap up here, because I think I've given you all the information that I really want you guys to have as far as where to find good information, who you should be listening to,

what are the important things you need to do? Uh, you know, hand washing and most at risk and who's most at risk and what kind of health conditions put you at that risk. You guys now have all that information. You also understand what's going on about dogs and how dogs can get it. And dogs cannot spread it to other dyes at this time.

They can not give it to other people at this time. But if you do get sick, you don't want to give it to your dog. And so, you know, the CDC is advising that you take precautions there, but what does this mean for us as agility people? Because when you have events like AKC nationals, cross is going right on right now in the UK,

you are bringing a lot of people in from all different parts of your country into one area. You know, it's a big gathering things like this have been shut down. We have a VIP member in where are they? No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Uh, South Korea or was it? Oh, Japan. Okay.

Yeah. All agility has been shut down. No agility trials. Okay. Now obviously we're not there right now in the United States. You know, I think there is a scenario in which that could happen or even if it's not shut down by the organization or barred by, um, uh, the local officials at the facilities being used. I can see a situation where people just don't go right.

And don't go for several months. Um, so in my view, I would advise people who are at high risk and you know who you are. Uh, we've given you a sense of that to be careful if you're going to go to agility trials. Um, I don't think you have to be quite as focused with a mask, but you need to avoid sick people that you see there.

And you need to be very, very good about the hand washing, but honestly, you know, it's easy for me to say, cause right now I'm not competing with a dog. We got the puppies. They're not gonna be ready for another year. So for me, this is good timing, but I'm not going to dog shows guys, you know,

I had plans to take the dog. You know, I may take them out to some places and parking lots and big open spots and maybe take them to a dog show and try and avoid other people and all that stuff. But, you know, I, I'm not going to do things that aren't necessary. Now. The risk tolerance for every person is different,

highly individual risk. We have, we everybody's own risk profiles, right. And so you have to make that decision for yourself, but just be smart, um, be cautious, but definitely listen to your public health experts. So again, world health organization and CDC, all right, that's where you guys need to be getting your information from. Um,

and all your state departments. They are getting their information from CDC. And that's it for podcast. If you guys have any follow up questions, um, you know, post them in the comments, send them to us at team at bad dog, agility.com. Remember to, uh, keep up with what's going on in the news, but, uh,

don't panic, you know, hope for the best prepare for the worst. Uh, definitely take care of yourself and your canine partners..

Thank You for Listening!

Thanks so much for joining us this week.

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